When They Cry Plot Discussion

[Josiah]

WARNING! MAJOR SPOILERS!


Having played the four question arcs and first answer arc (Mion/Shion's), here's my current thoughts. Feel free to discuss them but don't spoil any upcoming plot twists for me.

1. Oyashirosama's Curse:
I've been skeptical of it being an actual curse throughout the entire series since, in a way, that makes explaining all the game's mysteries way too easy "oh, it was just that supernatural curse doing everything". I'm not completely writing off something supernatural being involved (mainly cause of Rika's uncanny ability to predict the future in the fourth question arc), but I still think there's an actual person behind the curse killings. As for who, I have no idea. I was thinking it was the three familes, and thought Shion's theory on the whole thing in the first Kai arc would have worked pretty well, but it was discredited near the end of the arc when Mion reveals that even her grandmother wasn't able to figure out who was behind it.

2. Everyone's Evil "Possessed" Mode:
Mion was the only one who really acted that way in Watanagashi, which was explained by Shion's impersonating her and mental breakdown in the first Kai arc. I doubt sever mental issues are the reason behind all of those "possessed" moments though.

3. Oyashirosama's Presence:
I could write this off as acute paranoia, fueld by Rena telling everyone about how it happened to her...but that almost seems too easy.

4. Onikakuchi Arc:
I'm pretty certain that Rena is the bad guy though I can't say much until I've played her answer arc. There was a time when I wondered if when Rena and Mion cornered Kenichi near the end they were just hoping to subdue him until Irie could come and treat him, which would make their murder a really tragic misunderstanding. But I dropped that theory once the effects of the mysterious injection were revealed in Shion's battle with Rika in the first Kai arc. As for Rena herself, she could just be mentally unstable but if anyone's possessed she's probably the most likely one.

5. Watanagashi Arc:
Shion's serious mental breakdown explained a lot, but nothing was explained about the curse killings (other than that the Sonozaki family wasn't involved). And there's also the mystery of Takano's doppleganger who led everyone to break into the shrine storage and why said doppelganger did so in the first place.

6. Sotoko's Arc (can't remember the name):
Using a variation of Shion's curse theory in Kai, I was thinking that perhaps the Kenichi that showed up at the festival, the dissapearance of Teppei's body, and his mysterious revival were all tricks created by the villagers in order to protect Kenichi from the police investigation. With the problem being that they never told Kenichi about it, causing him to take it seriously and freak out. Problem is, that doesn't account for any of the other murders or why Sotoko's revived uncle (who by my theory would be a villager impersonating him) would continue to treat Sotoko so poorly. As for the big diaster that wipes out the whole village, I've got a pretty good theory. Said diaster only happened in this particular arc, not any of the others. In this arc, Kenichi pushed Teppei's motocycle into the swamp. Said swamp has some magma on the bottom (it says that somewhere). The magma could have ignited the gas in the motorcycle and caused it to explore, forming cracks in the crust beneath the swamp and causing the massive gas leak.

7. Rika's Arc:
Rika could just be able to predict the future. Then again, I was thinking today that all the arcs are essentially parrallel universe versions of the same story. I've been thinking that all along. But, what if there was a way to pass between those universes (which would be an alternate explanation for Sotoko's arc) or if it's not so much universes but the outcomes of some sort of macabre time loop (ala that one movie where the day kept repeating until the guy did everything correctly). In that case Rika could be the only one who retains her memory of previous cycles or demensions (either do to her spiritual powers or some random fluke), which would explain why she knows so much and why she always seems to be trying to "fix" things.

8. Tomitake's Murder:
I can't think of any good motive here. I'd say it was because he helped Takano break into the shrine storage, except that he didn't seem to do that in Onikakachi (he was photographing Rika during the festival) and even if he did it was Takano mysterious doppleganger, not Takano herself, that got him to do it. And since the doppelganger is probably either the muderer or working with the murderer, why would you purposely make someone do something that would make you angry enough to kill them?

[SuzuTitor]

In the "When They Cry" series, always be sure to keep an open mind and not to completely cross everything off until things are 100% confirmed. Was the effects of the injection ever explained, or were the injections even the same one?
With many of these you are close, but you still need more information to click some of the guesses in the right direction.
Your guess on the Great Hinamizawa Disaster is actually the first time I heard it as a guess. But it does work, and through Devil's Proof, it can't be doubted.
I would like to shoot down the "villagers protecting Keiichi from the police" theory, since you normally can't have faceless/nameless people in mysteries, but in chapter 2 Shion did in fact mention how the villagers work together.

[Josiah]

Keiichi So what was I reading recently with a Kenichi? Anyway...

Thanks to a combination of reading so many fantasy novels, playing so many RPGs, and being a writer myself, I've becoming extremely good at predicint plot twists. Heck, I predicted a very major plot point in The Wheel of Time series about five books before it happened. Of course, that ability assumes that there's actually enough information for me to work with. Some stories simply don't tell you enough for anyone to really predict what's going on, which is what I assume Higurashi is like (though I can't say for sure until playing all the arcs). So far, the only stories that have both adequetly foreshadowed their major twists and still really shocked me are the first four Harry Potter books.

In Watanagashi though, I'm fairly certain that no one could have definitively guessed that Shion was the main culpret. I think I did consider it as some point, but between her excellent acting, the very strong possibility of Mion being behind everything, and doppelganger of Takano (which naturally meant that there could have been a Shion/Mion doppelganger in there somewhere), there was really no way to make a fairly certain guess about who the real villian was.

At this point, I'm not completely ruling anything out (since I just don't have enough information to do so), though I do believe Mion when she said Ouryu had no idea who was behind the curse killings. As for the injection, I'm not 100% sure there, but considering Tomitake's death, Keiichi's death, and Rika's death, the strange dissapearance of the syringe in Onikakuchi, it seems pretty likely.

Once it was revealed that Shion's theory about the curse in Kai was wrong, I started to seriously doubt my villagers protecting Keiichi in Sotoko's arc theory. And it always had a couple of holes in it anyway (Irie's death and the fact that Sotoko's revived uncle continued abusing her, which he shouldn't have done if my theory is right). Right now, I think I'm more inclinded to believe that Teppei actually came back to life, Keiichi killed the wrong guy, or Keiichi actually did step into a different time or parrallel universe.

As for my theory on the Great Diaster... I was pretty certain about that one since, if the diaster was a part of the "curse" or a simple natural diaster it should have happened in Onikakuchi and Watanagashi too, which it didn't. The motocycle thing only happened in that arc though and, with a bit of really bad luck, could plausible trigger the gas leak. But your reaction to it isn't making me feel very confident...

Hopefully I'll have some more answers in a couple of weeks when MG releases the next answer arc.

[SuzuTitor]

Don't let my reactions mislead you either. I speak in riddles when it comes to this series, so I could get both my messages across while not spoiling.

[Silver]

Ugh, I can definitely vouch for that... A lot of times, talking to Colly about Umineko just lands me more confused than I was before... Of course, Umineko's got that Red Truth, so I suppose it's only natural that re-stating something I'd overlooked would end up throwing off all my theories.

A better interpretation of Colly's reaction would probably be... it never gets explained fully so she can't say if it's right or wrong.

[Josiah]

Speaking of Umineko, could one of you give me a link for the fan translation? I'll probably give it a try once I'm done with Higurashi.

[SuzuTitor]

http://witch-hunt.com/
Book 1 can be downloaded for free. However, the rest needs to be bought (or downloaded illegally).
I got my copy from PaletWeb.

[Josiah]

Thanks. I'm completely against pirating things, myself. My only exceptions are unliscensed anime (which I do buy sooner or later if/when they get liscensed) and the game Radical Dreamers since it's litterally impossible to buy a copy (it was released on an old SNES download services that naturally doesn't exist anymore). That said, have lived in Japan for long enough to know how much everything there costs, I really hate import store prices. So I decided to just download the Japanese games I want for now and then buy the actual discs next time I go to Japan. Though, looking over Palet Web, it doesn't look like they really mark up their prices so maybe I'll try and get some stuff from them sometime instead. Though shipping from Japan is rather expensive and I'm sure that, given a day in Akihabara, I could track down used copies of a lot of the games I want for a whole lot less.

Well, I'll see. If it doesn't look like I'll be able to get back to Japan in the not too distant future and I have some money to burn, I may go ahead and just order the stuff. Right now I definately don't have the spending money (way to many must have video games came out at the same time combined with all those new One Piece manga) and Palet Web seems to be sold out of half the stuff I'd want to order anyway.

[Josiah]

Not quite done with Rena's answer arc yet (I'm on the day after Watanagashi), but it's getting pretty interesting. Kinda odd how Rena is more or less taking on Keiichi's post Watangashi roll from the question arc... So far, the arc seems to have confirmed a couple of my theories and, of course, raised some more questions. I'll post a full write-up of my thoughts and moddified theories once I finish the arc (probably sometime over the coming week).

[SuzuTitor]

Yeah, Tsumihoroboshi is definitely fun entertainment wise, but it's okay as far as answers go, but still brings up some more questions.

[Josiah]

Ok, got through Rena's answer arc and I have a much better idea of what's going on. Still some unexplained things though. Overall, it was probably my favorite arc so far. Partly because it explained a lot, and partly because it had by far the best ending of the bunch. I mean, if not for the epilogue it would have pretty much been a "good" ending. But anyway, on with my latest thoughts theories.

1. Shion and Mion's Arcs
The answer arc explained everything there pretty well, aside from the big mysteries that stretch through the entire series, of course (the curse killings, the doppelganger, etc).

2. Rena's Arcs
Looks like my one theory about everything in Rena's question arc being a very unfortunate misuderstanding was right. I had kinda discounted that one, since Keichi never really seemed crazy (if he had bought into something as crazy as Rena's parasite alien theory, that would have been a different story entirely) and because I wasn't expecting him to be an unreliable narrator (that's such a rarely used literary device that it's hard to see it coming). Anyway, once again the answer arc cleared up pretty much everything except the big mysteries, though it did help a lot with those...

3. Sotoko's Arc
This one could be very easily explained by repeating the "Keiichi was dillusional" explanation. But, while that was fine for one arc, I'd rather they didn't reuse it. The only real theory related to this arc that's changed is my thoughts on the Hinamizawa Diaster, but I'll get to that later.

4. Possesed Mode
At this point, it's beginning to look like everyone's creepy possessed mode is simply the result of paranoid dementia (either on the part of the "possessed" person or on the part of the viewer). I won't completely rule out some other cause yet, but that was pretty much the cause in both the Rena and both the Mion/Shion arcs.

5. The Time Loop and Rika's Powers
While I wasn't sure before, Rena's answer arc clearly confimed that the events of the whole series are some sorta of time loop or parrallel universe hopping thing (personally, I think a time loop sounds better, but it's mostly just simantics). Anyway, so there's a time loop. It's happened hundreds of times already but tends to follow one of several different scenarios (as detailed in the various arcs). Rika, for some reason or another, keeps all her memories each time (which makes it rather amazing that she's still sane). Since she's been through all the scenarios multiple times, she can see how things are starting to play out, realize which scenario she's in, and from then on has no problem predicting the future, since she's seen it all before.

6. The Other Person
Aside from Rika, there's another person or being stuck in the time loop. At this point I'm not entirely sure if it's a physical person, invisible presence or creature (if it is, it could account for the "presence of Oyashiro" and the extra footstep), or alternate persona in Rika. Either way, while the endless time loop has pretty much caused Rika to give up and just go along with things (at least until the events of Rena's answer arc), this mystery person (a she, I think) sees the whole thing as a maze and is actively manipulating things in an attempt to find a way to escape the maze and break the loop. However, she still hasn't been able to prevent Tomitake's death or create any sort of good ending. Rika knows of the mystery person's existence and they talk from time to time. No idea who she is, but it's possible that she's the doppelganger and the one who's actions determin which scenario plays out each loop.

7. The Demon's Script and Breaking the Loop
After Keiichi started regaining his memories of previous loops, he called the events a demon's script, at if someone were writing and orchetrating everything. That's probably true, since it seems unlikely that the time loop just started up on its own. With his determination, he was finally able to break free of the script and create a reasonably good ending in Rena's answer arc. According to Rika, it's the first time something like that happened. However, that alone wasn't enough to break the loop. Chances are, the only way to fully break free is to discover who is behind it all and stop them.

8. The Curse Killings
I suspect whoever is behind the time loop is behind at least some of them. It seems like Irie might know something about how Tomitake died though, especially since he mysteriously dies in Sotoko's question arc and Rena's answer arc. However, I am beginning to wonder if perhaps Sotoko was really the one who killer her aunt and Satoshi either ran away or vanished while trying to cover for her...

9. The Great Hinamizawa Diaster
The way Rena's answer arc suddenly segued into the ending of Sotoko's arc was a surprise and kinda wrecked my motorcycle induced explosion theory. However, now that I have confirmation of the time loop and am pretty certain that someone or something is behind it all, the diaster is starting to look more like a "rock falls everyone dies" panic button of sorts. So far, the only arcs where it's been confirmed that the diaster actually happened are Sotoko's question arc and Rena's answer arc, which are the only two in which the main characters didn't start killing each other. Near the end of both just about everyone except Irie and Rika were still alive. In addition, in Rena's they were on the path to a fairly happy ending. Which is why I'm thinking the diaster may be a way to quickly kill everyone off, prevent a happy ending, and restart the loop in case things go wrong and the main characters don't kill each other off as planned. Of course, if the diaster happened in every arc but just wasn't mentioned, then I may need to rethink that.

10. The Parasite Theory
The basis of it was interesting (before it starting assigning super intelligence and alien origins to the parasites) and might have some truth to it...but probably not.

11. The Doppel Ganger
Quite possible it's either the mystery person or the true villian. Then again, if my next theory is right...

12. The True Villian
Why I really can't be sure who it is, a part of me wants to finger Takano. First off, she an occult not, obsessed with the curse, and seems to like violent murders. She's always creepy too. More importantly, I can easily point to her notebooks as being one the key factors in driving both Shion and Rena crazy (and they even predicted many of the events in Rena's arc). And, while it's a little more of a stretch, I could say that Keiichi's dillusions in Rena's question arc were primarily Tomitake's fault, and he could have been guided (probably unwittingly, since I think he's innocent) into doing that by Takano since they're friends. It's harder to pin the blame on her for Sotoko's arc but it wasn't until after Keiichi ran into her (or rather her doppelganger) the night of Watanagashi that things started getting weird. Then there's the fact that, at this point, the only two doppelgangers that are unaccounted for are Takano's and Keiichi's. Assuming an alternate explanation for Keiichi's double, it's possible that there never was a doppelganger in the first place. Takano's body has always been badly burned. Perhaps she faked her own death (burning someone else's body in the hope it'd be misidentified as hers). That would explain her "doppelganger" and, if she's the true villian, provide the perfect way to divert suspicion from herself. And if all that's true, the real Takano could be the one who mudered Irie later on, probably because he discovered her secret. Tomitake's murder could have been for a similar reason.

Anyway, in the end I was really happy to see Keiichi break the scenario. Problem is, things then went into Sotoko's arc with Rika and Irie's muders and the great diaster. I've still got nothing for Rika's murder though, unless the villian did so to prevent her from warning everyone about the diaster. Really looking forward to the next arc. I'm hoping that Keiichi will either keep or quickly regain his memories, which should allow him to start investigating the truth behing the curse and time loop.

[SuzuTitor]

There's little I can discuss now without accidentally spoiling you some things.
Few things.

because I wasn't expecting him to be an unreliable narrator (that's such a rarely used literary device that it's hard to see it coming).

Now you're adjusted to this. Ryukishi07 absolutely loves this literary device. Through all of the "When They Cry" series, you need to find which narrators you can trust, and who you can't.

Rika, for some reason or another, keeps all her memories each time (which makes it rather amazing that she's still sane).

While I know that this is certainly the truth, I still want to doubt it since I want to shoot down anything paranormal. Unfortunately, there isn't much to help me with this one.

However, I am beginning to wonder if perhaps Sotoko was really the one who killer her aunt and Satoshi either ran away or vanished while trying to cover for her...

This is why I love the VN so much more than the anime. The anime gave only one interpretation and that was Satoshi killing his aunt (and this was before all answers were given to the animators). VN readers are given a bit more freedom to interpret this in multiple scenarios.

The basis of it was interesting (before it starting assigning super intelligence and alien origins to the parasites) and might have some truth to it...but probably not.

You are among the few people I know that actually hasn't completely dropped this theory by the end of this book. It seemed very believable when it was just the parasites, but when the aliens got involved, and a whole bunch of other theories by Takano were involved, it seemed hard to believe in any of them.

12. The True Villian

Really nice analysis there, linking everything like that. But always be sure not to base it off of just one theory. If the base were to be destroyed, every other link would be shattered too.

Next arc answers most of what everyone was waiting for. Also, if I recall correctly, it is the "choice arc", where now you need to make decisions throughout the book.

[Josiah]

I really doubt there's much truth to the parasite theory, but the basis was interesting and plausible enough that I don't want to drop it entirely yet.

When it comes to the muder of Sotoko's aunt, something Rika and Sotoko said when confronting Rena about Teppei and Rina's murders made me wonder. Not to mention that Sotoko in many ways seems more capable of murder than Sotoshi.

As for the true villian... I'll admit that my Takano theory could be easily destroyed depending on what happens next chapter. Of all the characters that have been introduced so far though, she's the only one I can build a good case for. The villian obviously isn't Keiichi, Rena, Shion, Mion, Rika, or Sotoko and I'm pretty certain it's not Tomitake, Ooishi, or one of the leading Sonozakis. Which doesn't leave much. There's Irie, who seems like he may know a bit more than he's letting on, but I can build a far stronger case against Takano than him. As I went over in my analysis, I can easily blame her for three arcs and pin at least some suspicion on her for the other two (Rika's arc not being counted since it's a prequel and all). Not to mention that her being the villian and faking her own death would all but solve the doppelganger mystery... Though the villian could, of course, be someone who hasn't been introduced yet or someone that I simply haven't gotten much info on (say the historical Oyashiro).

Really hoping that MG announces the release date for the next arc soon...

[Josiah]

Minagoroshi will be out on the 31st!

[Josiah]

Finished Minagoroshi. Gah, they were so close to winning too... But hey, I was right on target about Takano. At this point, nearly everything has been explained but, just to summarize...

1. Shion, Mion, and Rena's Arcs
Nothing much to add about those, as they were pretty much all explained before. Other than the fact that Hinamizawa Syndrome made it easier for them to go crazy.

2. Satoko's Question Arc
Surprsingly, Minagoroshi didn't really explain all the mysteries behind Satoko's arc but it made it easy enough to guess. My current theory (which I'm about 99% sure of): Keiichi did kill Satoko's uncle. At that point Mion and/or some other villagers found out about it, covered for Keiichi by pretending he was at the festival and moving the body (unfortunately forgetting to tell him that they were doing so). Satoko was, at this point, in a very bad mental state and probably hadn't been taking her medicine so, even though her uncle was dead, she thought he was still alive and abusing her (when I think about it, no one except her actually saw Teppei after Keiichi killed him).

3. The Great Diaster
I was both right and wrong about this one with my last guess, but it was fully explained in the arc. Kinda curious as to how it was handled in Shion's arcs though, since Rika's murder/suicide would have thrown a serious wrench in Takano's plans...

4. Hinamizawa Syndrome
A milder version of the parasite theory which works pretty well and explains how easily some people went crazy. The whole thing with the "queen" is a bit odd though and, admittedly, I have to wonder if Takano's grandfather was wrong about that part.

5. Rika's Syringe
It had to have been the medicine for Hinamizawa Syndrome.

6. The Time Loop
I originally thought the time loop was being caused by the true villian, just cause they liked killing everyone over and over, so I was wrong there. But having Rika and Hanyu behind it explains why Rika keeps her memories.

7. The Mysterious Presence
Hanyu was the presence and the extra step. I hope that later it gets a bit more into who or what Hanyu really is.

8. The Doppelganger
There never was one. Mion's doppelganger was Shion. Takano's was herself, since she faked her own death. And, assuming I'm right, Keiichi's was just the villagers trying to cover for him.

9. The True Villian
Well, I was right about Takano (had started to doubt myself on that during the first part of the arc but changed my mind later) but wow... She's even crazier than I thought. Doesn't Tokyo require psych evaluations of their high ranking agents or something? I mean she's a seriously power hungry psychopath... Now that I know for sure that she's the villian, I'm pretty certain that she was purposly trying to drive Shion, Rena, and possibly Keiichi crazy in the previous arcs, either to test the effects of Hinamizawa Syndrome or just for her own twisted sense of fun.

10. The Curse Killings
Takano admitted to demoning away one of the first year victems. As for the rest, probably a combination of people acting under Hinamizawa Syndrom and Takano's group. On that note, I wouldn't be surprised if Takano purposely trigged Hinamizawa Syndrome in some of the involved parties either for research or "fun". Though when Satoko's discovered that she was sick, she almost remembered something very traumatic. Going off of that and Rika's reaction, I suspect Satoko was involved with one of the previous deaths (though I can't say if it was her parents', her aunt's, or Satoshi's).

11. Unsolved Mysteries
There don't seem to be many left at this point. Hanyu is still very much a mystery and Satoko's question arc wasn't fully explained (though I'm pretty confident in my theory about it) but there's not much else. Looks like the final arc will be less questions and answers and more about finally breaking Takano's deadly plot.

And that's about it. After the ending of Minagoroshi, I'm really looking forward to the next arc in hopes of seeing the gang destroy Takano.